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New research indicates that the video produced by "Texans for Truth," which questions President Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard has a marginal impact on voters.
Approximately 1,368 probable voters including 382 independent voters, participated in an on-line political ad testing survey of the new counter video, conducted between September 10, and September 12, by Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) and HCD Research.
Survey participants were asked various demographic questions as well as voting history and current preferences and their intensity of support for each of the candidates. They were then asked to view the advertisement two (2) times to evaluate the content for interest and believability using an automated response methodology. While participants view the ad, they move the mouse to the left on a continuum, to indicate low levels of interest and right to indicate high interest. They repeat the procedure to measure the ad's believability.
After viewing the advertisements, responders were asked questions related to their intensity of support, which was compared to the levels of support that they indicated in the survey prior to viewing the commercials.
The study reveals that among voters who viewed the video:
- When comparing Pre/Post viewing of the video there was modest decrease in Independent responders likelihood to support President Bush.
- Among independents who indicated pre-video viewing that they were leaning to Bush, those indicating that they were "definitely voting" for him declined from 68% to 64% after seeing the video. One-half of these voters moved to the category "not sure."
- Among Republicans leaning toward President Bush, 2% declined in intensity of support from "definitely voting" to "most likely."
- Approximately 45% of independent viewers indicated they thought the advertisement was persuasive.
- 41% of Independent viewers indicated interest in seeking more information regarding the topic of the ad.
- n 53% of Independents indicated feelings of skepticism, suspicion, disgust and irritation regarding the ad
This on-going advertising study is being conducted by ReadMyLipz.com, a joint effort by HCD Research and Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO). The two organizations are conducting non-partisan advertising research throughout the election to measure voter reactions to the candidates' advertisements.
The participants are asked to view advertisements supporting one of the two major candidates and provide feedback using various methods, including real-time interest and believability tracking and the Ayer Emotional Battery. For more information on the survey methodology and testing results, access www.ReadMyLipz.com.
For more information or to schedule an interview with Glenn Kessler, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, HCD Research, Arthur Kover, Ph.D., Senior Consultant, HCD Research or Chris Borick, Ph.D., Associate Political Science Professor, Muhlenberg College, please contact Vince McGourty, M&M Communications, Inc., at 908-713-1267 or vinmcg@earthlink.net.
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